Poll shows Missouri voters back Trump, Hawley, abortion rights and minimum wage hike

by Rudi Keller, Missouri Independent
August 29, 2024

Missourians seem poised to legalize abortion and increase the minimum wage in November but are unlikely to embrace the Democratic statewide candidates who are among the ballot measures’ most ardent supporters, a new poll shows.

The proposal to enshrine the right to abortion up until the point of fetal viability in the Missouri Constitution drew support from 52% of people surveyed between Aug. 8 and 16 for the St. Louis University/YouGov poll. The minimum wage increase, to $15 an hour by Jan. 1, 2026, had even stronger backing, with 57% of those surveyed saying they support it.

The poll also found majorities supporting every Republican running statewide, who each held at least a 10-percentage point lead over Democratic opponents. Former President Donald Trump was selected by 54% of respondents, with 41% backing Vice President Kamala Harris. The poll gives Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe a 51% to 41% advantage over House Minority Leader Crystal Quade in the governor’s race.

The best-funded Democratic statewide candidate, Lucas Kunce, was 11 percentage points behind incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley, with the poll showing Hawley with a 53% to 42% edge.

“I’d be very surprised if any Democrat won a statewide race this year,” poll director Steven Rogers said. “It’s not breaking news that Democrats struggle in statewide races in Missouri.”

The poll surveyed 900 voters and has a 3.8% margin of error. It included 69 questions, seeking views on major issues facing the state in addition to tracking approval ratings for politicians and testing election contests.

The results showed:

Polling by SLU/YouGov began in 2020, making this the second presidential election year for the project. Its last poll before the 2020 election pointed correctly to the outcome, but Republican candidates generally did better than the poll indicated.

Gov. Mike Parson was shown with a 50% to 44% lead over Democratic State Auditor Nicole Galloway and ended up winning by a 57-41 margin. That poll showed then-President Donald Trump with a 52% to 43% advantage over Joe Biden, with the final result a Trump win, also by a 57-41 margin.

Democrats are banking heavily on voter support for ballot measures, especially the abortion rights proposal, to help overcome some of the other disadvantages they face. No Democrat has won a statewide race since 2018.

Historically, however, ballot measures have only a marginal impact on candidate races, said Rogers, an associate professor of political science at St. Louis University.

“A presidential election year is probably the least effective time to have something else to boost turnout,” he said.

Ballot measures can drive turnout. Three of the most high-profile Missouri ballot measures this century — same-sex marriage in 2004, right to work in 2018 and Medicaid expansion in 2020 — were placed on the August primary ballot by governors worried about the impact of ballot-measure voters on November campaigns.

In 2004, the issue coincided with a titanic battle for the Democratic nomination for governor and 847,000 Democrats voted. In 2018, with no significant primary, 607,577 votes were tallied in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate and in 2020, where there again was no hotly contested primary, 537,000 Democrats voted in the gubernatorial race.

In years with no high-profile ballot measures, Democrats since 2000 have averaged about 350,000 voters in statewide primaries for governor and U.S. Senate.

Republicans also showed an increase in primary voters in the years with ballot measures, but not by the same degree. In years without controversial ballot measures, the GOP has averaged about 530,000 voters in statewide contests for governor and U.S. Senate. The average for 2004, 2018 and 2020 was about 640,000 votes.

That data shows that ballot measures can impact low-turnout elections, Rogers said. Presidential election years traditionally have the highest turnout.

“Those voters may already be turning out, and so the difference that you’re making is probably going to be marginal,” Rogers said.

The poll found very few voters are undecided, so the target for Democrats will have to be voters who support the ballot measures but intend to vote for Republican candidates. The poll shows that about one-third of voters who said they will vote for Trump, Kehoe and Hawley will also support the abortion rights amendment and minimum wage propositions.

Democrats will have a tough time switching voters, Rogers said.

“There isn’t much evidence of what we would call reverse coattails for ballot measures,” he said. 

The only Democrat already airing television ads in advance of the November election is Kunce, who has spent $2.7 million through Tuesday, according to FCC records reviewed by The Independent. Hawley has spent $1.2 million on television ads in defense of the seat he won in 2018.

Hawley is in the best position he has been in any of the previous SLU/YouGov polls. His approval rating is 53%, which is 14 percentage points higher than his negative rating. That is the best overall number recorded, Rogers said.

He also had a 14-point net positive rating in July 2021 in the first SLU/YouGov poll after the Jan. 6 attempt to overturn the 2020 election.

Hawley’s lowest net positive was two points in an August 2022 poll taken just after video of him running away from the Senate chamber during the Jan. 6 riot was included in hearings of the House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack. In that survey, Hawley had a 46% favorable rating and a 44% unfavorable rating.

The only Republican statewide candidate who equals Hawley’s support is state Sen. Denny Hoskins of Warrensburg, shown with a 54-36 lead in the secretary of state race over state Rep. Barbara Phifer, the Democratic nominee.

Hoskins ran in the primary as a team with state Sen. Bill Eigel, who finished second in the primary for governor. Eigel’s combative style found an enthusiastic audience in some areas and that is likely helping Hoskins, Rogers said.

Hawley also has a reputation for being combative and that may explain why he is doing so well, Rogers said.

“Hawley is not Eigel, but he sometimes acts Eigel-like,” he said.

The poll found support for the abortion rights initiative, which is slated to appear on the November ballot as Amendment 3, is increasing. It is eight percentage points higher than found in a February poll, Rogers said. 

Amendment 3 has a plurality or majority of voters in most demographic, income and education subgroups, with only Republicans, as a group, and voters in rural areas of northeast and southern Missouri showing more opposition than support.

The abortion measure would overturn a Missouri law that took effect in June 2022 after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that provided federal constitutional protection for abortion. Under current Missouri law, abortions are only allowed to save the life of the mother or when “a delay will create a serious risk of substantial and irreversible physical impairment of a major bodily function.”

Exactly how many initiative proposals will be on the Nov. 5 ballot remains uncertain. 

The abortion rights measure and the proposal to legalize sports wagering must survive court challenges, and backers of a proposal to allow a new casino near the Lake of the Ozarks are trying to overturn the decision that they fell short of the required signatures in one congressional district.

No hearing had been set as of Wednesday afternoon for the challenge to the abortion rights amendment. Attorneys will be in court Sept. 5 for arguments over the sports wagering proposal, which would be Amendment 2 on the ballot, and on Friday for the casino proposal.

With no legal challenge, the campaign committee for increasing the minimum wage, known as Missourians for Healthy Families and Fair Wages, has already begun reserving television ad time for the final three weeks of the campaign. Through Tuesday, the committee had spent $904,000, according to FCC records.

The minimum wage proposal, which also includes a requirement for businesses to provide paid time off to full-time employees, is supported across all regional, demographic, income, and education subgroups. Only Republicans, as a group, showed more opposition than support. On another question, pollsters surveyed what voters thought the minimum wage should be in Missouri and the median was $15, the level targeted in the initiative.

Support for sports wagering, seen in 50% of those polled, was also widespread. Only one subgroup, voters in southeast Missouri, showed more opposition to sports wagering than support.

Each of the initiative campaigns is poised to spend millions to hold and expand the support shown in the polls. Rogers said he’s confident that effort will pay dividends.

“My anticipation,” he said, “is that as the campaigns become more active, and based off our previous polling, that support will only go up.”

Missouri Independent is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Missouri Independent maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Jason Hancock for questions: [email protected]. Follow Missouri Independent on Facebook and X.

Evergy is hoping its regulators OK higher electric bills for its Missouri West customers

by Meg Cunningham, Beacon: Missouri
August 26, 2024

Evergy confused and angered its Missouri customers in 2023 when it rolled out time-of-use rates that meant prices would run highest when people use the most electricity.

Missourians, especially those on fixed incomes, complained of high costs and having to choose between things like groceries and their medications or powering their homes during peak hours.

Now, Evergy Missouri West, which has a monopoly on service for much of the western part of Missouri outside of Kansas City, is heading back to its regulator to ask for more from the 340,000 users in the region. (Here's how you can weigh in.)

Evergy wants the Public Service Commission to OK a 13.99% increase in electric rates, giving the company up to $104.5 million more in revenue a year. In 2023, the company reported $731 million in earnings. 

“As people do we pick between: are we eating, or are we paying our power bill?” said Kelly Smith, who showed up to testify at a public hearing in St. Joseph on the proposed rate hike. “My bill is just shy of $300. I work all the time. I’m hardly ever home.  … My thermostat is set to 75 degrees.” 

The Public Service Commission held several hearings across Evergy’s coverage area in late July. Dozens of Missourians, including lawmakers, showed up to argue against the rate hike. They shared stories of $700 bills, finding every energy-efficient upgrade to their home they could and making tough choices about which bills to pay. 

Just because the company asked for a rate increase doesn’t mean it’ll get what it asked for. The commission started an 11-month review in February. It will decide in December how much rates might go up starting Jan. 1.

Why is Evergy asking for a rate increase?

Evergy argues it needs the higher rates to recoup money it spent on two natural-gas plants and for a range of upgrades to withstand severe weather and surges of demand for electricity. 

The upgrades in the grid have already been made, said Gina Penzig, a spokesperson for Evergy.

“We make the investments and the power grid, and then we go to the commission and ask to recover those investments,” Penzig said.  “So we are asking for money that the company has already spent.” 

The company is asking for funds to aid in its purchase of part of a natural-gas plant in Pleasant Hill to generate more electricity for the region. It’s also reupping its longtime request to make back some of the cost of transporting power from a natural-gas plant in Mississippi to Missouri, a request the state regulators have previously denied. 

Evergy has conducted studies that show transmitting the energy from Mississippi to Missouri is the most cost-effective method of serving some customers. If they can’t recover those costs, Evergy may have to revisit the issue in the future to find another way to transmit that energy, Penzig said. 

The rate hike request alarmed some Evergy customers, which drew the attention of lawmakers. They’d already been hearing complaints about the time-based plans mandated by the commission. 

“They said that the average customer was supposed to have a rate decrease,” said Rep. Dean VanSchoiack, a Republican who represents parts of the state north of St. Joseph. “I’ve not met that average customer yet.” 

He takes issue with how Evergy is passing along the costs of its upgrades to customers, who don’t have the choice of simply switching providers if they can’t keep up with the bill. 

“From what I understand right now — 13.99% — it’s mostly to cover the expenses they did upgrading their poles and lines,” VanSchoiack said. “I was in business. You have to make money…but there are certain costs of doing business that you don’t get to expense right away.” 

But because utility companies are monopolies, they aren’t faced with the same burdens of a typical business in a free market. 

“Utilities are basically glorified construction companies,” said Geoff Marke, the chief economist at the Missouri Office of Public Counsel, a sort of ombudsman. “When they build assets, they make a return on it. So they have a perverse incentive to build as much as they can.” 

Evergy says its rates lag its peers across the country. But the OPC said that lacks context. 

When Evergy was formed in 2018 from the merger of Kansas City Power and Light Co. and Westar, regulators froze its rates for five years. 

In 2018, the Missouri General Assembly passed a law that allowed utilities to access plant-in-service accounting, which spreads out the cost of investments over years. Those costs are typically passed on to the consumer.

“I’d say it’s much less ‘We didn’t ask for anything,’” said John Clizer, the senior counsel for the Office of Public Counsel, “and much more about ‘We delayed asking for a lot of things, but you are still going to pay for all of that.’ They may not have gotten the rate increases, but you’re also seeing all these other increases to certain charges.” 

The Public Service Commission’s options on the Evergy rate increase

The Public Service Commission consists of five members and has the power to approve the rate increase as is, deny it or respond with a rate different than what Evergy asked for. The commissioners are appointed by the governor. Gov. Mike Parson has appointed all but one of the current members, who have a staff of over 200 at their disposal. 

The commission is structured like its regulatory counterpart in Kansas, the Kansas Corporation Commission. The KCC has three members, also appointed by the state’s governor. They approved a rate increase in November for Evergy’s central Kansas customers, also to cover costs associated with power plant investments and new infrastructure. 

The proposed rate increase comes as many Republicans in Jefferson City are looking to regulate the regulator. After frustration over the time-based plans, some lawmakers want to add two more people to the commission and require more varied professions.  Some proposed legislation looks to require some members to have farming or utility backgrounds. 

Kayla Hahn is the current chair of the commission. She was most recently Parson’s policy director. Three other members previously served in the Missouri General Assembly. The most recent addition to the commission is John Mitchell, who spent over three decades in various roles at Burns & McDonnell Engineering in Kansas City. 

Renew Missouri, a group that advocates for the state to move toward cleaner energy sources, says the most recent appointment is breaking from the traditional model. 

“Generally it’s been lawmakers and aides to the governor who are on there,” said James Owen, the group’s executive director. “I think it’s good to see different professions represented there.” 

Some lawmakers, like VanSchoiack, want to see commissioners who aren’t necessarily politicians. 

“They’re working too much for the power companies, not enough for the people,” VanSchoiack said.

Owen said the commission is “pro-utility.”

“They need to be confronted with the fact this is not just some line on a balance sheet,” Owen said. “It is actually real people who are struggling and suffering.”                                                                  

VanShoiack isn’t confident that all of the legislature or Republican leadership sees the need to take another look at the structure of the commission. 

“We need to be looking at things that really do truly help people,” VanShoiack said. “I think we’d be better off if we did try to focus more on some of these issues and less on the political issues.” 

This article first appeared on Beacon: Missouri and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.