Missouri Independent: Poll shows Missouri voters back Trump, Hawley, abortion rights and minimum wage hike

Poll shows Missouri voters back Trump, Hawley, abortion rights and minimum wage hike

by Rudi Keller, Missouri Independent
August 29, 2024

Missourians seem poised to legalize abortion and increase the minimum wage in November but are unlikely to embrace the Democratic statewide candidates who are among the ballot measures’ most ardent supporters, a new poll shows.

The proposal to enshrine the right to abortion up until the point of fetal viability in the Missouri Constitution drew support from 52% of people surveyed between Aug. 8 and 16 for the St. Louis University/YouGov poll. The minimum wage increase, to $15 an hour by Jan. 1, 2026, had even stronger backing, with 57% of those surveyed saying they support it.

The poll also found majorities supporting every Republican running statewide, who each held at least a 10-percentage point lead over Democratic opponents. Former President Donald Trump was selected by 54% of respondents, with 41% backing Vice President Kamala Harris. The poll gives Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe a 51% to 41% advantage over House Minority Leader Crystal Quade in the governor’s race.

The best-funded Democratic statewide candidate, Lucas Kunce, was 11 percentage points behind incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley, with the poll showing Hawley with a 53% to 42% edge.

“I’d be very surprised if any Democrat won a statewide race this year,” poll director Steven Rogers said. “It’s not breaking news that Democrats struggle in statewide races in Missouri.”

The poll surveyed 900 voters and has a 3.8% margin of error. It included 69 questions, seeking views on major issues facing the state in addition to tracking approval ratings for politicians and testing election contests.

The results showed:

The economy is the biggest concern for voters, listed as the No. 1 issue by 47%. The survey also showed 69% view the national economy as fair or poor and 71% give that rating to the state economy. Health care, at 18%, and education, 16%, are the second and third issues listed as top concerns.A plurality of voters, 42%, oppose four-day school weeks, but those aged 18 to 29 support it by a 44% to 35% margin. Voters 65 years old or older had the strongest opposition. A new law requiring a public vote to adopt a four-day week in districts in charter counties and cities larger than 30,000 people had overwhelming support at 77%, which was consistent across all demographic, income and partisan groups.Laws to require a background check for gun sales and banning minors from carrying guns on public property without adult supervision also had overwhelming support, 79% and 85% respectively. But voters oppose other measures to control firearms, including allowing local ordinances that are stronger than state law.

Polling by SLU/YouGov began in 2020, making this the second presidential election year for the project. Its last poll before the 2020 election pointed correctly to the outcome, but Republican candidates generally did better than the poll indicated.

Gov. Mike Parson was shown with a 50% to 44% lead over Democratic State Auditor Nicole Galloway and ended up winning by a 57-41 margin. That poll showed then-President Donald Trump with a 52% to 43% advantage over Joe Biden, with the final result a Trump win, also by a 57-41 margin.

Democrats are banking heavily on voter support for ballot measures, especially the abortion rights proposal, to help overcome some of the other disadvantages they face. No Democrat has won a statewide race since 2018.

Historically, however, ballot measures have only a marginal impact on candidate races, said Rogers, an associate professor of political science at St. Louis University.

“A presidential election year is probably the least effective time to have something else to boost turnout,” he said.

Republican U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley, left, confronts his Democratic challenger, Lucas Kunce, over who is ducking debates during a meeting Thursday, Aug. 15, 2024, at the Governor’s Ham Breakfast at the Missouri State Fair in Sedalia (Rudi Keller/Missouri Independent).

Ballot measures can drive turnout. Three of the most high-profile Missouri ballot measures this century — same-sex marriage in 2004, right to work in 2018 and Medicaid expansion in 2020 — were placed on the August primary ballot by governors worried about the impact of ballot-measure voters on November campaigns.

In 2004, the issue coincided with a titanic battle for the Democratic nomination for governor and 847,000 Democrats voted. In 2018, with no significant primary, 607,577 votes were tallied in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate and in 2020, where there again was no hotly contested primary, 537,000 Democrats voted in the gubernatorial race.

In years with no high-profile ballot measures, Democrats since 2000 have averaged about 350,000 voters in statewide primaries for governor and U.S. Senate.

Republicans also showed an increase in primary voters in the years with ballot measures, but not by the same degree. In years without controversial ballot measures, the GOP has averaged about 530,000 voters in statewide contests for governor and U.S. Senate. The average for 2004, 2018 and 2020 was about 640,000 votes.

That data shows that ballot measures can impact low-turnout elections, Rogers said. Presidential election years traditionally have the highest turnout.

“Those voters may already be turning out, and so the difference that you’re making is probably going to be marginal,” Rogers said.

The poll found very few voters are undecided, so the target for Democrats will have to be voters who support the ballot measures but intend to vote for Republican candidates. The poll shows that about one-third of voters who said they will vote for Trump, Kehoe and Hawley will also support the abortion rights amendment and minimum wage propositions.

Democrats will have a tough time switching voters, Rogers said.

“There isn’t much evidence of what we would call reverse coattails for ballot measures,” he said. 

The only Democrat already airing television ads in advance of the November election is Kunce, who has spent $2.7 million through Tuesday, according to FCC records reviewed by The Independent. Hawley has spent $1.2 million on television ads in defense of the seat he won in 2018.

Hawley is in the best position he has been in any of the previous SLU/YouGov polls. His approval rating is 53%, which is 14 percentage points higher than his negative rating. That is the best overall number recorded, Rogers said.

He also had a 14-point net positive rating in July 2021 in the first SLU/YouGov poll after the Jan. 6 attempt to overturn the 2020 election.

Hawley’s lowest net positive was two points in an August 2022 poll taken just after video of him running away from the Senate chamber during the Jan. 6 riot was included in hearings of the House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack. In that survey, Hawley had a 46% favorable rating and a 44% unfavorable rating.

State Sen. Denny Hoskins, right, speaks with Barbara Coan, center, and Mark Coan, during a July 2 campaign stop in Springfield (Rudi Keller/Missouri Independent).

The only Republican statewide candidate who equals Hawley’s support is state Sen. Denny Hoskins of Warrensburg, shown with a 54-36 lead in the secretary of state race over state Rep. Barbara Phifer, the Democratic nominee.

Hoskins ran in the primary as a team with state Sen. Bill Eigel, who finished second in the primary for governor. Eigel’s combative style found an enthusiastic audience in some areas and that is likely helping Hoskins, Rogers said.

Hawley also has a reputation for being combative and that may explain why he is doing so well, Rogers said.

“Hawley is not Eigel, but he sometimes acts Eigel-like,” he said.

The poll found support for the abortion rights initiative, which is slated to appear on the November ballot as Amendment 3, is increasing. It is eight percentage points higher than found in a February poll, Rogers said. 

Amendment 3 has a plurality or majority of voters in most demographic, income and education subgroups, with only Republicans, as a group, and voters in rural areas of northeast and southern Missouri showing more opposition than support.

The abortion measure would overturn a Missouri law that took effect in June 2022 after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that provided federal constitutional protection for abortion. Under current Missouri law, abortions are only allowed to save the life of the mother or when “a delay will create a serious risk of substantial and irreversible physical impairment of a major bodily function.”

Exactly how many initiative proposals will be on the Nov. 5 ballot remains uncertain. 

The abortion rights measure and the proposal to legalize sports wagering must survive court challenges, and backers of a proposal to allow a new casino near the Lake of the Ozarks are trying to overturn the decision that they fell short of the required signatures in one congressional district.

No hearing had been set as of Wednesday afternoon for the challenge to the abortion rights amendment. Attorneys will be in court Sept. 5 for arguments over the sports wagering proposal, which would be Amendment 2 on the ballot, and on Friday for the casino proposal.

With no legal challenge, the campaign committee for increasing the minimum wage, known as Missourians for Healthy Families and Fair Wages, has already begun reserving television ad time for the final three weeks of the campaign. Through Tuesday, the committee had spent $904,000, according to FCC records.

The minimum wage proposal, which also includes a requirement for businesses to provide paid time off to full-time employees, is supported across all regional, demographic, income, and education subgroups. Only Republicans, as a group, showed more opposition than support. On another question, pollsters surveyed what voters thought the minimum wage should be in Missouri and the median was $15, the level targeted in the initiative.

Support for sports wagering, seen in 50% of those polled, was also widespread. Only one subgroup, voters in southeast Missouri, showed more opposition to sports wagering than support.

Each of the initiative campaigns is poised to spend millions to hold and expand the support shown in the polls. Rogers said he’s confident that effort will pay dividends.

“My anticipation,” he said, “is that as the campaigns become more active, and based off our previous polling, that support will only go up.”

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